COVID projections: Mission "Begin Again"

So, India has finished its 10 weeks lockdown. While the number seems to increase at a much higher rate than earlier, but somewhere it also seem to be in control. This can be said based on the doubling rate. India went from 25k to 50k cases in 12 days. From 50k to 1Lakh in next 12 days. With that calculations, India should have crossed the count of 2 lakh on May 30 itself. But Today (June 01) is 14th day and we are still almost 9k behind that count. So, the doubling rate is increasing, which is good.

We need to understand one thing here, the number of cases is going to keep growing in coming days. As the number that we often come across is the total number and not the actual active cases ( the number left after removing number of cured cases), we will end up seeing big numbers on the screen. Our recovery rate is also good, reaching almost 50% now. That will create a better picture of the actual severity of the COVID cases.

Jumping into the number game once again, I projected a renewed number of 1,90,000 for India at the end of 4th lockdown. The projection was spot on crossing the projected number by just 600 more cases.  After 10 weeks,  now although, we are calling it as Mission Begin again, but still it is a kind of lockdown with little relaxed norms. After 2 weeks time, India is set to touch a new number of 3.5 lakhs at the end of 15 June, if the current trend is followed. And  this is good news, because with this number, we are actually improving the doubling rate. For India although, the flattening of the curve is not in site yet.

The trend of the major contributor, Maharashtra might be reversing in coming days. If the current trend continue as it is, we might see a number around 1.25-1.3 lakhs by the end of 15 June.

But, considering the recent decrease in the reported cases per day, a reversal might be insight and as per another projection, it may happen that Maharashtra will reach its peak around 92000 and start showing a reverse trend. There is a high chance that Maharashtra will give away its tag of major contributor to some other state (Mostly Delhi or Tamilnadu) and in strict sense start its "Begin Again" mission. Now there is some sense of suspicion regarding the reduced number of positive cases reported in Maharashtra. According to some news we came across, the government has reduced the number of testings itself . Automatically, the number of positive cases reported will also reduce. But lets not get into it. Genuine or fabricated, the number seems to have reduced and this has surely brought the peaking period for Maharashtra in sight.

The second biggest contributor (but still far behind in race to Maharashtra) is Tamilnadu. Although, there seem to be a big rise in its numbers, I feel, the state is also close to its peak, somewhere around 27-28 thousand, by the end of this 15 days slot.

But there is a catch here. Contrary to Maharashtra, where the recent trend is of decreasing number of cases, Tamilndu has started reporting bugger and bigger number of cases in last few days. And the increase in number is pretty high. If this near recent trend is not temporary and infact end up growing further, there is a large possibility of explosion of cases where the number of cases may touch upto 1 lakh cases by the end of June 15. That's why, Tamilnadu seem to be major contender to replace Maharashtra 

While Tamilnadu, atleast has a minute chance of reaching its peak by June 15, Delhi doesn't seem to be in that mood at all. In case of  Delhi, the question, will the increasing trend remain the same or enhance further. If current rate is followed, the number of cases may reach nearly 60,000 cases.

But,  if the rate increases even slightly, the number of positive cases by the end of June 15 will jump up to 90,000 cases. Thats why, Delhi becomes the second big contender to overtake Maharashtra. Worst part is, we are not seeing any signs of its peak in coming days, in fact till the end of June.

Gujrat is the fourth state with large number of cases. But, seems like the situation has already started getting under control. By June 15, the number may rise upto 22,000 cases. 

But if the last few days trend is to be followed, there is a big chance that, the state will reach its peak somewhere around 19,000 and will start dying down after that.

There is another projection, where enhanced rate can be considered compared to current rate. In this scenario, the number of cases here too, will show a big jump and may reach upto 32-33,000 cases. But, even in such scenario, the state is in no competition to either Tamilnadu or Delhi to become the major contributor.

While Maharashtra and Gujrat will start receding in coming days, the number of cases for India will keep rising. And here, the number will start dropping in from other states. Blame it on migration of workers or something else, but we are seeing a growing trend from all other states. With entry of migrants into the state as well as opening up of lockdown, it is going to be the test of every state, how they will manage to control the growth of COVID-19 in their respective states. Seems like few states including U.P., M.P. and Rajasthan have managed to  put some brake on its growth. What about others?
Lets wait and understand.

4th Lock down revised projections

We are entering into third week of lockdown. The situation seems to go from worse to worst. Yesterday, we registered record 7000+ number of cases. Almost half of it coming solely from one state of Maharashtra. With this migrant’s transportation across India happening right now, I don’t see any way the number coming down anytime. Situation of India doesn’t look promising. Last week, I projected a number pf around 1,82,000 cases by the end of 4^th lockdown. But looks like, it will rise a bit to 1,90,000 cases. The trend seems moving beyond cubical correlation and towards n=4 value. I am not showing that correlation at the moment, but this incremental trend of last couple of days, where per day cases is breaking new records, continues, then this number may reach closer to 2 lakhs for sure. Testing times.

There is no doubt, that the major contributor to this chaos is Maharashtra. As of now almost 36% cases are coming from this state, with the first state to cross 50,000 mark solely. This number is almost equal to the total number of cases OFFICIALLY reported by Pakistan. I am not sure how well the situation is handled by the present government of Maharashtra. Too many issues keep coming up. Very high population density like 7.5 lakhs of people living in 2 square km area of Dharavi (Difficult to maintain social distancing). Limitations visible over keeping strict lock down. Issues over migrant’s coming on road and so on. We can just hope, things will come in control at some point of the time, but definitely not till the end of 4^th lockdown. There is a high probability that the number of cases in Maharashtra itself will rise above 70000.

The next bigger contributor is Tamilnadu. But it is way behind Maharashtra. Infact, the total of next 3 states in list of cases, Tamilnadu, Gujrat and Delhi together fail to cross the mark made by Maharashtra. Such is the performance of Maharashtra. Looking at Gujrat, it has managed to keep the rise ratio to square term. And as indicated in last week projection, Tamilnadu which once showed cubic trend of increase, has started diverting away to the squarish trend. But Delhi seem to be growing with the same old cubic rate. By the end of the 4^th lock down, the three states together would contribute around 60,000 cases, much lesser than Maharashtra alone.

In a bigger probability, this would be the end of lock down era. Things will start smoothening out after 31^st May, even in areas which are red zone right now. Only time will tell, if we will a big jump in coming days. But one thing is sure, we are now entering the group of countries, which are red marked. Our yesterday’s number of daily reported cases stand 4^th after US, Brazil and Russia.  Difficult days are waiting ahead. 

                                                            SO, Gear up.

4th Lockdown end projections

I was not expecting, but here I am making projection for the end of 4th Lockdown in India. What ever claim people might be making, I believe, we are no where close to flattening the curve. Instead, we are now kind of drifting away from squarish trend towards cubic trend.  In last projection, I predicted 90000 cases for India. And as a matter of fact, on 17th Morning, the count was 90648. But on the day of the end of lockdown, it jumped by more than 5000.The square pattern is surely becoming a case of past. I am assuming in coming two weeks, the number will rise to any number  between 1,62,000 and more closer to 1,82,000. This, when the trend is not even completely cubic in nature. If the situation deteriorates, which is quite possible for many reasons and activities happened recently, I won't be surprised, if the number crosses 2 lakh.

But one more thing to notice would be the doubling time, if my projections remain true like last time, would be more than 14 days, which I guess is a good number. So, irrespective of the big number getting counted, probably, there is some kind of flattening, happening in the big picture as some studies might suggest.

The major contributor no doubt is Maharashtra. Unlike other states, it is very consistent. We hardly see any decrease in number. In every 3-4 days, it jumps to a new high and then starts settling down at that number for couple of days and then again takes a big jump. Just yesterday, the number jumped to a new big of ~2300.  After checking the trends of other states, it seems that the major reason for India tilting towards cubic trend is none other than Maharashtra, which itself has started taking that path. I predict by the end of this 4th lockdown the number of cases in Maharastra will reside no lesser than 58000 and probably somewhere closer to 68000.

Tamilnadu seems to be heartening story to me. Last time, I showed, how it is the only state in India showing cubic trend. But as I was expecting, it was a temporary phase unlike Maharashtra where the trends are consistently increasing. To me, it seems the trend is now deviating away and reducing from cubic correlation. If the projections are to be followed, the number for Tamilnadu may extend to a number somewhere between 22000 to 31000. How significantly the trend is deviating from cubic trend will be realized by seeing the number as far away possible from 31000.

Last, but not the least is the state of Gujrat. It was doing fine, following a squarish correlation when suddenly a big spike of nearly 1000 cases in a day appeared just two days back. I guess it was a once in a while cases and probably the trend will follow again as earlier. The thing is it will make it difficult to reach the zone of flattening the curve. All in all, a number closer or slightly higher than 19000 is what I would project by the end of 4th lock down.

I will be glad if this puts an end to my projection studies. It is disheartening to see the number growing so rapidly and all we can do is "Nothing".

COVID-19 New projection for 3rd lockdown end

The things seem going from worse to worst. Forget linear correlation, now we are drifting away from squarish correlation. The major contributor no doubt is Maharashtra. Yesterday, it reached a new height crossing mark of 2000 cases in one day. There are many crowded areas in Mumbai, where social distancing is just impossible. I believe taking some lesson from this crisis, the government will try to take some efforts in decluttering the chaos in places like Dharavi. There is hardly any living quality in those places and I think, this  crisis should be taken as an opportunity to bring some system in there. With the trend drifting away from square trend, I predict an increase in number of cases  to 30000 fro Maharashtra by the end of 3rd lock down.

Gujrat is another state rapidly emerging with big number of cases. Although situation has not worsened much and it shows just an increase of 300 more cases compared to earlier projection.

India is majorly reflecting the trend of Maharashtra with major contribution as big as 1/3rd coming from this single state. India also seem to slowly drifting towards n=3 trend. Little scary. I see the number growing to ~ 90000 by the end of the lockdown. 

 A significant rise is observed in cases in Tamilnadu. I am not sure, what has gone wrong there, but the rise is significantly higher than any other state in India. It is already spreading at n=3 rate. That means if on day 1, number of cases is 3, then on day 2, the number will try to increase to any number between 9 to 27. Which is a scary scenario.

I wonder if the governments in these states have any action plan. Are they taking any learning from other states like Kerala, which has gone down from state no. 1 to I don't know, probably 10th or 11th.

All in all, there is no easy way out I am seeing out of this crisis for India.

COVID-19 Projections for 3rd lockdown in India

Looks like my projections for India and Maharashtra fall well in line. But I am glad that Kerala proved me wrong and managed to deviate by at least 15 patients less than projected. While India today stands near 43000  (projected 44000) and Maharashtra at 12900(projected 14000), we can surely say that India and probably due to bigger contribution of Maharashtra in it, are currently following a polynomial trend (with n=2). Well, it is still not absolutely squarish, but, its almost there.

With the third lock down of 2 weeks starting today, I have conducted another projection till 17th May. Here it goes:

 With the polynomial dependence, India is looking to  reach to a big number of almost 78000-79000. One of the projections I came across had mentioned that the peak for India will be crossed somewhere around 23rd May with an estimated number of patients of ~75000. 

I tried to extrapolate the data to that date and it seems India will touch a mark of 1 lakh on 24th May. So, a lot now depend on how India perform in these 2 weeks. If we can curb down the trend. Will we be able to deviate away from this squarish trend. Now the fight really has come down to these 2 weeks. This period will decide, whether we have crossed the peak or we are going beyond squarish dependency.

Story of Maharashtra is nothing different. Infact, I feel, India is picking most of the signatures from the trends of Maharashtra. By the end of third lock down, which evidently has to be followed in the major cities of Maharashtra, it will be touching around 27000 mark. A lot now depends on how the Thakrey government manages to put a brake on this squarish trend.

I tried to look at other two states Gujrat and Delhi also, which have also started showing some rising trends.

Gujrat has started showing big rise in last couple of days. Earlier, it even did not exist on the radar. Till 15th April, it was going smooth. But then it sharted changing the gear and now it has starting picking up the squarish trend. If not controlled soon, Gujrat is on the way to become like Maharashtra. If deviated towards linear trend, we expect it to touch ~7500 cases, but if continuing with the exisiting squarish trend, we can see a number of ~11500 on board.

Delhi on the other hand is an ON and OFF case. It faces a situation that leads to sudden rise in numbers, then every thing seems coming under control. Again it looses its hold and the numbers start rising. But all in all, the situation is not as worse as  Maharashtra and Gujrat. We expect number of cases to be between 6000 to 7500 by 17th of May.

There are few other states which have started showing the high trends. These includes states like Tamilnadu, M.P. U.P and most recently Punjab is adding in.

I am following their trends. I feel these may not be permanent trends and would probably loose steam in a day or two. So, not putting out their data and number as yet. If they keep performing the same in coming days, will put separate post for these states.

How COVID numbers may stand at Lock down end in India

Everyone is fed up of COVID-19 and really looking for a day when we will start living without that fear. Every one is handling it in different ways, but every one in their mind is trying to make a guess of how the virus effect is shaping up and can we see a light at the end of the tunnel.

I also have been following it closely. Out of some conversation, I started following the growth especially in two states of India, Maharashtra and Kerala, which were competing at some point about who reports the maximum patients. We know how the two drastically different routes the two states have taken by now. So, I collected the related data about couple of states as well as for India from the site https://www.covid19india.org/ since April 06 and over the time. Based on the data, I have to tried to extrapolated it to check where will India, Maharashtra and Kerala stand at the end of the second lock down in India ends on 3rd May.

India is slightly deviating from linear correlation and slowly moving towards square correlation. I believe, the main reason could be the Maharashtra trend which pretty much every day contributes to 1/3rd to 1/2 of the total cases of India. Depending on how it varies in coming few days, by 4th May, India tally may stand between 36000 if it varies linear to 44000 it goes all hell to square dependency.

The worst effected state of India, Maharashtra has surely moved away from linear dependency and surely following a square trend. i.e. if on day 1, the number was 3, on day 2, the number will be higher than 6 ( a number otherwise possible for linear trend). With linear trend, the number on 3rd May will be somewhere near 10,300. But if it starts following polynomial trend as shown, it will be near 14,000. Surely a number we do not want.

So, Kerala, which was competing at one point with Maharashtra has performed really well. It was almost flattening the curve.  But noe, it has started again showing a linear trend. As of now, it shows no sign of going polynomial. I estimate the number to be around 525-535 on 4th May.

Palghar incident -shameful

I am just wondering at the level of cruelty humans can reach down to. How can someone become so senseless that they can just keep beating another human and not feel anything about it. Humans are no doubt cruel, the way they treat animals around. There have some brutal videos of dogs or cats being killed in most inhumanly manner as possible. But, now we are reaching to whole new level. I feel sad for those three people at Palghar and all other victims of mob lynching cases happened earlier,who had to go through it. Death is inevitable, but it should not be brutal. I just wish no one gets such an experience. Please make people little sane. At the same time, just wondering, will the people involved be punished?