Looks like my projections for India and Maharashtra fall well in line. But I am glad that Kerala proved me wrong and managed to deviate by at least 15 patients less than projected. While India today stands near 43000 (projected 44000) and Maharashtra at 12900(projected 14000), we can surely say that India and probably due to bigger contribution of Maharashtra in it, are currently following a polynomial trend (with n=2). Well, it is still not absolutely squarish, but, its almost there.
With the third lock down of 2 weeks starting today, I have conducted another projection till 17th May. Here it goes:
With the polynomial dependence, India is looking to reach to a big number of almost 78000-79000. One of the projections I came across had mentioned that the peak for India will be crossed somewhere around 23rd May with an estimated number of patients of ~75000.
I tried to extrapolate the data to that date and it seems India will touch a mark of 1 lakh on 24th May. So, a lot now depend on how India perform in these 2 weeks. If we can curb down the trend. Will we be able to deviate away from this squarish trend. Now the fight really has come down to these 2 weeks. This period will decide, whether we have crossed the peak or we are going beyond squarish dependency.
Story of Maharashtra is nothing different. Infact, I feel, India is picking most of the signatures from the trends of Maharashtra. By the end of third lock down, which evidently has to be followed in the major cities of Maharashtra, it will be touching around 27000 mark. A lot now depends on how the Thakrey government manages to put a brake on this squarish trend.
I tried to look at other two states Gujrat and Delhi also, which have also started showing some rising trends.
Gujrat has started showing big rise in last couple of days. Earlier, it even did not exist on the radar. Till 15th April, it was going smooth. But then it sharted changing the gear and now it has starting picking up the squarish trend. If not controlled soon, Gujrat is on the way to become like Maharashtra. If deviated towards linear trend, we expect it to touch ~7500 cases, but if continuing with the exisiting squarish trend, we can see a number of ~11500 on board.
Delhi on the other hand is an ON and OFF case. It faces a situation that leads to sudden rise in numbers, then every thing seems coming under control. Again it looses its hold and the numbers start rising. But all in all, the situation is not as worse as Maharashtra and Gujrat. We expect number of cases to be between 6000 to 7500 by 17th of May.
There are few other states which have started showing the high trends. These includes states like Tamilnadu, M.P. U.P and most recently Punjab is adding in.
I am following their trends. I feel these may not be permanent trends and would probably loose steam in a day or two. So, not putting out their data and number as yet. If they keep performing the same in coming days, will put separate post for these states.
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