4th Lock down revised projections

We are entering into third week of lockdown. The situation seems to go from worse to worst. Yesterday, we registered record 7000+ number of cases. Almost half of it coming solely from one state of Maharashtra. With this migrant’s transportation across India happening right now, I don’t see any way the number coming down anytime. Situation of India doesn’t look promising. Last week, I projected a number pf around 1,82,000 cases by the end of 4^th lockdown. But looks like, it will rise a bit to 1,90,000 cases. The trend seems moving beyond cubical correlation and towards n=4 value. I am not showing that correlation at the moment, but this incremental trend of last couple of days, where per day cases is breaking new records, continues, then this number may reach closer to 2 lakhs for sure. Testing times.

There is no doubt, that the major contributor to this chaos is Maharashtra. As of now almost 36% cases are coming from this state, with the first state to cross 50,000 mark solely. This number is almost equal to the total number of cases OFFICIALLY reported by Pakistan. I am not sure how well the situation is handled by the present government of Maharashtra. Too many issues keep coming up. Very high population density like 7.5 lakhs of people living in 2 square km area of Dharavi (Difficult to maintain social distancing). Limitations visible over keeping strict lock down. Issues over migrant’s coming on road and so on. We can just hope, things will come in control at some point of the time, but definitely not till the end of 4^th lockdown. There is a high probability that the number of cases in Maharashtra itself will rise above 70000.

The next bigger contributor is Tamilnadu. But it is way behind Maharashtra. Infact, the total of next 3 states in list of cases, Tamilnadu, Gujrat and Delhi together fail to cross the mark made by Maharashtra. Such is the performance of Maharashtra. Looking at Gujrat, it has managed to keep the rise ratio to square term. And as indicated in last week projection, Tamilnadu which once showed cubic trend of increase, has started diverting away to the squarish trend. But Delhi seem to be growing with the same old cubic rate. By the end of the 4^th lock down, the three states together would contribute around 60,000 cases, much lesser than Maharashtra alone.

In a bigger probability, this would be the end of lock down era. Things will start smoothening out after 31^st May, even in areas which are red zone right now. Only time will tell, if we will a big jump in coming days. But one thing is sure, we are now entering the group of countries, which are red marked. Our yesterday’s number of daily reported cases stand 4^th after US, Brazil and Russia.  Difficult days are waiting ahead. 

                                                            SO, Gear up.