Unlock 1 continues

So, the Unlock 1.0 is slowly gripping up. Some people are questioning, with the increasing number of cases every day, is it the right way to go ahead or should there be another lock down imposed?

I believe, there is no more need of lock downs. What ever is to be achieved, has been achieved.

Inspite of what the number says, I would say, the spread is quite in control. If you remember, my projection of positive cases in India by 15th June, was 3,50,000. I made little revision last week and projected the number to be around 3.5 -3.8 lakh cases. Comparing the projection to actual numbers today, we are gladly way behind that number. By the end of the day, I don't see the number crossing 3,45,000 mark. This simply means, we are in a way improving the situation. Second aspect to check the rise, is to make a note of doubling time. The doubling time has increases to 17 days, which is a good news. 

This improvement is also reflected in the new projections, I am making till the end of June month. So, on 31st May, I projected the number for June end as 5,00,000. Then, I revised it to 6,00,000 by 8th June. Now, I am again revising it and putting it somewhere around 5.4 lakhs, which is a big improvement over the last week.

Now, Maharashtra has been a major contender behind these increasing number of cases. Last week, I projected the number of cases from Mahrashtra by the end of June 15 to increase to 1.1 -1.2 lakh cases. As of today, the number stands at 1.08 lakhs. By the end of the day, the number will rise probably to 1.11 lakhs. This is an improvement. Although, I also projected a case, where the number may have reached its peak at 1.2 lakhs and may start reducing. But looks like, that scenario will need some more time to come into picture. As per present situation, the projections for Maharashtra for the end of the month stands at around 2,35,000 cases. Maharashtra had started signs of recovery, but with the spread in areas in addition to Mumbai and Pune, looks like by June end, Maharashtra will be contributing almost 43% of total cases of India.

There is kind of competition between Tamilnadu and Delhi. I projected around 42,000 cases for both the state by 15th June. While Delhi is touching that mark today, Tamilnadu has gone past that number. I am little surprised, why then all the attention is on Delhi, while Tamilnadu situation is deteriorating day by day. If the current trend follows, Tamilnadu will cross a mark of 1.2 lakhs by the month end. There is a serious need to check the situation of Tamilnadu. In contrast, Delhi is given bigger attention. The situation is bad, but, I guess still far better than Tamilnadu. I do not see Delhi crossing 70,000 mark by the end of this month. That is a way better situation.

Gujrat is the fourth state in the race. But, it is lagging behind in the race, which is a good thing. I predicted two scenarios for the state. I am glad, the second scenario of projected 1,00,000 cases did not arise and Gujrat continued keeping strong grip on the spread of COVID. If the current trend continues, we can expected the number restricted to 40,000 cases.

So, these 4 states together will contribute almost 4,65,000 cases out of projected 5,40,000 cases across India. i.e. this ratio would decrease from 86% in two weeks to 65%. This is something to worry about. Other states would be contributing 35% of cases by the end of the month. If we manage to put control on rise in cases in other states, we would be able to significantly curb the spread of COVID. Let's see how things change in coming two weeks.

4th Lockdown end projections

I was not expecting, but here I am making projection for the end of 4th Lockdown in India. What ever claim people might be making, I believe, we are no where close to flattening the curve. Instead, we are now kind of drifting away from squarish trend towards cubic trend.  In last projection, I predicted 90000 cases for India. And as a matter of fact, on 17th Morning, the count was 90648. But on the day of the end of lockdown, it jumped by more than 5000.The square pattern is surely becoming a case of past. I am assuming in coming two weeks, the number will rise to any number  between 1,62,000 and more closer to 1,82,000. This, when the trend is not even completely cubic in nature. If the situation deteriorates, which is quite possible for many reasons and activities happened recently, I won't be surprised, if the number crosses 2 lakh.

But one more thing to notice would be the doubling time, if my projections remain true like last time, would be more than 14 days, which I guess is a good number. So, irrespective of the big number getting counted, probably, there is some kind of flattening, happening in the big picture as some studies might suggest.

The major contributor no doubt is Maharashtra. Unlike other states, it is very consistent. We hardly see any decrease in number. In every 3-4 days, it jumps to a new high and then starts settling down at that number for couple of days and then again takes a big jump. Just yesterday, the number jumped to a new big of ~2300.  After checking the trends of other states, it seems that the major reason for India tilting towards cubic trend is none other than Maharashtra, which itself has started taking that path. I predict by the end of this 4th lockdown the number of cases in Maharastra will reside no lesser than 58000 and probably somewhere closer to 68000.

Tamilnadu seems to be heartening story to me. Last time, I showed, how it is the only state in India showing cubic trend. But as I was expecting, it was a temporary phase unlike Maharashtra where the trends are consistently increasing. To me, it seems the trend is now deviating away and reducing from cubic correlation. If the projections are to be followed, the number for Tamilnadu may extend to a number somewhere between 22000 to 31000. How significantly the trend is deviating from cubic trend will be realized by seeing the number as far away possible from 31000.

Last, but not the least is the state of Gujrat. It was doing fine, following a squarish correlation when suddenly a big spike of nearly 1000 cases in a day appeared just two days back. I guess it was a once in a while cases and probably the trend will follow again as earlier. The thing is it will make it difficult to reach the zone of flattening the curve. All in all, a number closer or slightly higher than 19000 is what I would project by the end of 4th lock down.

I will be glad if this puts an end to my projection studies. It is disheartening to see the number growing so rapidly and all we can do is "Nothing".

COVID-19 New projection for 3rd lockdown end

The things seem going from worse to worst. Forget linear correlation, now we are drifting away from squarish correlation. The major contributor no doubt is Maharashtra. Yesterday, it reached a new height crossing mark of 2000 cases in one day. There are many crowded areas in Mumbai, where social distancing is just impossible. I believe taking some lesson from this crisis, the government will try to take some efforts in decluttering the chaos in places like Dharavi. There is hardly any living quality in those places and I think, this  crisis should be taken as an opportunity to bring some system in there. With the trend drifting away from square trend, I predict an increase in number of cases  to 30000 fro Maharashtra by the end of 3rd lock down.

Gujrat is another state rapidly emerging with big number of cases. Although situation has not worsened much and it shows just an increase of 300 more cases compared to earlier projection.

India is majorly reflecting the trend of Maharashtra with major contribution as big as 1/3rd coming from this single state. India also seem to slowly drifting towards n=3 trend. Little scary. I see the number growing to ~ 90000 by the end of the lockdown. 

 A significant rise is observed in cases in Tamilnadu. I am not sure, what has gone wrong there, but the rise is significantly higher than any other state in India. It is already spreading at n=3 rate. That means if on day 1, number of cases is 3, then on day 2, the number will try to increase to any number between 9 to 27. Which is a scary scenario.

I wonder if the governments in these states have any action plan. Are they taking any learning from other states like Kerala, which has gone down from state no. 1 to I don't know, probably 10th or 11th.

All in all, there is no easy way out I am seeing out of this crisis for India.