Skip to main content

Posts

How would COVID bahave in August - few projections

Entering August with COVID by side   Entering in the month of August, COVID is still here by our side. Situation seems grim, worse than earlier, as number of active cases as well as the count of deceased patients are increasing day by day. Yesterday we crossed the mark of 50,000 cases in a day. Closely competing with Brazil with US counts also in range now. On the other side, few other numbers like reduced mortality rate to 2.18%, recovery rate of 64.6% and slightly increased doubling rate of 21 days can reduce the anxiety. My projections of 16.75 lakhs for India might be crossed by coupe of thousands of more cases after today’s count is added. This number would reach to a huge count of 28.5 lakhs by August 15. Maharashtra just doesn’t like competition. Just like what Delhi tried few days back, Andhra Pradesh also managed to cross Maharashtra’s per day count for2 consecutive days. Seems like not a good idea. Maharashtra immediately went to the next zone. The state which was l

COVID-19 July End: Where would India stand?

This last week seems terrible. The kind of spurt we saw in last many days was unexpected. Yesterday's count was 45000+. I did not expect. Are coming days going to report bigger numbers than this? We need to understand the cycle it follows. Mumbai is a good example. Since beginning Mumbai was heading the race. While other cities were reporting the count in 10's or 100's, Mumbai was reporting in thousands. back then, as much as 60-70% of Mahrashtra's total count was coming from Mumbai. Now after a period of almost 3 months, Mumbai is lagging behind. Pune, Kalyan, Thane have overtaken Mumbai. The famous hotspots of Dharavi, Dadar, Sion, Worli are longer uttered in the news. Of course, the counts are still there, but they do not attract any more attention. This is a cycle which will be followed in every new red zone area. The point is how big spike we allow the zone to get and how quickly we nab it. Delhi at one point started competing with Mumbai/Maharashtra. But, it has f

July end COVID19 projections

This last week seems terrible. The kind of spurt we saw in last many days was unexpected. Yesterday's count was 45000+. I did not expect. Are coming days going to report bigger numbers than this? We need to understand the cycle it follows. Mumbai is a good example. Since beginning Mumbai was heading the race. While other cities were reporting the count in 10's or 100's, Mumbai was reporting in thousands. back then, as much as 60-70% of Mahrashtra's total count was coming from Mumbai. Now after a period of almost 3 months, Mumbai is lagging behind. Pune, Kalyan, Thane have overtaken Mumbai. The famous hotspots of Dharavi, Dadar, Sion, Worli are longer uttered in the news. Of course, the counts are still there, but they do not attract any more attention. This is a cycle which will be followed in every new red zone area. The point is how big spike we allow the zone to get and how quickly we nab it. Delhi at one point started competing with Mumbai/Maharashtra. But, it h

COVID-19: One Week long projection post mid july

How would you call the COVID-19 situation in India for the last week. In contrast to what I hear around, I would say, the situation in India is improving. Lets see the reasons why I feel so: - Recovery rate has gone up to 63%. So, there is almost 2/3rd chance of survival for every person getting infected by COVID - The mortality rate has now reduced down to ~2.5%, way down from 3.2% in a 10 days duration.This is happening because of more and more testing. Today's report said, we did record 3.2 lakh testing in a day. This implies that the possibility of death because of COVID-19 is getting low. It may mean,  most of the people around can do fine with a little low panic level. Of course, precautions are necessary, if you don't want to fall in that very low 2.5% mortality set. Coming down to numbers. I am happy to see that India deviated significantly from my mid-July projection of 10.25 lakhs. Good to see the lowered down number. This shows the kind of control we ar

COVID-19 -Mid July Projections

Half of the year is gone. Come July and what is happening at the COVID-19 front now for India. With the number of cases pretty fast, all seems getting more and more worried. But I will start on good note. Lets talk about the doubling rate.  The doubling rate of cases has increase from last time 17 days to 20 days now. Some reports suggested that the doubling rate of 30+ days means things are well in control. Now, a more important factor - mortality rate. We are doing even better here. The mortality rate has reduced from 3.2% to 2.8%. This is good news. Third thing is the recovery rate. India's recovery rate has increased to 60% Coming to Country and state wise projections. India has found a lot new contributors to increase its counts. Of course Maharashtra is in no mood to give away its premium position. Still, I would say, India is in a better situation then what I projected at the end of the month of June . I am revising my projections for the total number of cases

COVID-19 mid July projection

Half of the year is gone. Come July and what is happening at the COVID-19 front now for India. With the number of cases pretty fast, all seems getting more and more worried. But I will start on good note. Lets talk about the doubling rate.  The doubling rate of cases has increase from last time 17 days to 20 days now. Some reports suggested that the doubling rate of 30+ days means things are well in control. Now, a more important factor - mortality rate. We are doing even better here. The mortality rate has reduced from 3.2% to 2.8%. This is good news. Third thing is the recovery rate. India's recovery rate has increased to 60% Coming to Country and state wise projections. India has found a lot new contributors to increase its counts. Of course Maharashtra is in no mood to give away its premium position. Still, I would say, India is in a better situation then what I projected at the end of the month of June. I am revising my projections for the total number of cases f

COVID-19 updates - June end

The past week seem to have changed the scenario little bit. A sudden jump in the reported positive cases is the reason behind it. Despite, I don't see much change in the projections. Last week, I revised the projection from 5.4 lakhs to 5.75 lakhs by the end of the month. The sudden spikes seen in the last few days would take this number to around 5.8 -5.9 lakhs. So, pretty much similar area of projection. There are couple of good things to look forward too. Like, the recent doubling time was 17 days. Now we are in the 16th day since the count of 3.2 lakhs, and we have a pretty long way to reach the count of 6.4 lakhs. Means the doubling time would surely be more than 17 days. At the same time, the mortality rate has slightly reduced from 3.2% to 3.08%. Also, the recovery rate has also touched 60%. Talking about further projections, by 15th July, we can see a huge jump reaching a count of 11.5 lakhs. Talking about states, Maharashtra seems in no mood to loose its first positio

Popular posts from this blog

Standard Chartered: Jaisa Naam vaisa Kaam

Quite often we come across people with mismatching names and personalities. It unknowingly happens that if you know the meaning of a name you start correlating it with that person's personality. Over the time, we realize that it was a futile effort since name does not reflect the real person. The problem behind this mismatch is a person is given a name without knowing the personality. He/She receives his/her name from parents in a time when he/she is not in a position to take decision. Its the choice of their parents and they give name by their wish without knowing the character of the child. Well nobody can change that and so this discrepancy will always be found. This is the theme that Standard Chartered has used to advertise its good character. Contrary to what one see in day to day life, Standard Chartered savings account delivers according to the name by actually saving one's money and thus sets an example. It gives 5% cash back on all your debit card expenditures. I

Bharti axa insurance ad: Suraksha ka naya nazaria

In the series of ads based on old songs as back ground, another interesting ad comes from Bharti Axa Insurance. The classic melody " Aap yahan aai kisliye ?" attracts your attention right from the word "Hello". The back ground is somewhat like a Government office, possibly a jibe at another most successful insurance group in India. An old kind of guy comes in the office with some letter received from the insurance office. And then with every new line coming from the song, events are unfolded revealing all the cumbersome activities you need to do under the name of formalities. It  looks really good how the ad tries to connect the activities with the lines said. The ad goes on explain how Bharti Axa insurance provides an alternative route to this unnecessary and cumbersome activities. Using their tag line, " Suraksha ka Naya Nazaria ", it offers the option of dedicated client handlers. So, you won't need to run around offices, but their client han

OLX Mundi Dance - Attention grabbing ad

People at OLX always come up with some very weird idea to grab attention of people. The ad may not make much sense, but, it does the task very well - of imbibing their product in people's mind. Till recently, OLX was a new thing around the corner. Slowly, it started making its mark with some catchy phrases like "OLX pe bech dal". In all this time, one thing very common with OLX was their ad concept. It always have been little "Hat ke", often weird, but good enough to convey their message. This time again OLX has come up with this weird idea. If we look at the concept of the ad, it is actually a simple conversation between father and son in presence of rest of the family members, where the son is asking father to give some extra money to buy sports bike. Father as usual denies the request. At this point, the boys sister comes to rescue, suggesting him to sell all the old unnecessary items at home to raise money for his sports bike. Now, to this otherwise ve