Monday, May 11, 2020

COVID-19 New projection for 3rd lockdown end



The things seem going from worse to worst. Forget linear correlation, now we are drifting away from squarish correlation. The major contributor no doubt is Maharashtra. Yesterday, it reached a new height crossing mark of 2000 cases in one day. There are many crowded areas in Mumbai, where social distancing is just impossible. I believe taking some lesson from this crisis, the government will try to take some efforts in decluttering the chaos in places like Dharavi. There is hardly any living quality in those places and I think, this  crisis should be taken as an opportunity to bring some system in there. With the trend drifting away from square trend, I predict an increase in number of cases  to 30000 fro Maharashtra by the end of 3rd lock down.
Gujrat is another state rapidly emerging with big number of cases. Although situation has not worsened much and it shows just an increase of 300 more cases compared to earlier projection.
India is majorly reflecting the trend of Maharashtra with major contribution as big as 1/3rd coming from this single state. India also seem to slowly drifting towards n=3 trend. Little scary. I see the number growing to ~ 90000 by the end of the lockdown. 
 A significant rise is observed in cases in Tamilnadu. I am not sure, what has gone wrong there, but the rise is significantly higher than any other state in India. It is already spreading at n=3 rate. That means if on day 1, number of cases is 3, then on day 2, the number will try to increase to any number between 9 to 27. Which is a scary scenario.

I wonder if the governments in these states have any action plan. Are they taking any learning from other states like Kerala, which has gone down from state no. 1 to I don't know, probably 10th or 11th.

All in all, there is no easy way out I am seeing out of this crisis for India.

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