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How would COVID bahave in August - few projections

Entering August with COVID by side   Entering in the month of August, COVID is still here by our side. Situation seems grim, worse than earlier, as number of active cases as well as the count of deceased patients are increasing day by day. Yesterday we crossed the mark of 50,000 cases in a day. Closely competing with Brazil with US counts also in range now. On the other side, few other numbers like reduced mortality rate to 2.18%, recovery rate of 64.6% and slightly increased doubling rate of 21 days can reduce the anxiety. My projections of 16.75 lakhs for India might be crossed by coupe of thousands of more cases after today’s count is added. This number would reach to a huge count of 28.5 lakhs by August 15. Maharashtra just doesn’t like competition. Just like what Delhi tried few days back, Andhra Pradesh also managed to cross Maharashtra’s per day count for2 consecutive days. Seems like not a good idea. Maharashtra immediately went to the next zone. The state which was l

COVID-19 July End: Where would India stand?

This last week seems terrible. The kind of spurt we saw in last many days was unexpected. Yesterday's count was 45000+. I did not expect. Are coming days going to report bigger numbers than this? We need to understand the cycle it follows. Mumbai is a good example. Since beginning Mumbai was heading the race. While other cities were reporting the count in 10's or 100's, Mumbai was reporting in thousands. back then, as much as 60-70% of Mahrashtra's total count was coming from Mumbai. Now after a period of almost 3 months, Mumbai is lagging behind. Pune, Kalyan, Thane have overtaken Mumbai. The famous hotspots of Dharavi, Dadar, Sion, Worli are longer uttered in the news. Of course, the counts are still there, but they do not attract any more attention. This is a cycle which will be followed in every new red zone area. The point is how big spike we allow the zone to get and how quickly we nab it. Delhi at one point started competing with Mumbai/Maharashtra. But, it has f

July end COVID19 projections

This last week seems terrible. The kind of spurt we saw in last many days was unexpected. Yesterday's count was 45000+. I did not expect. Are coming days going to report bigger numbers than this? We need to understand the cycle it follows. Mumbai is a good example. Since beginning Mumbai was heading the race. While other cities were reporting the count in 10's or 100's, Mumbai was reporting in thousands. back then, as much as 60-70% of Mahrashtra's total count was coming from Mumbai. Now after a period of almost 3 months, Mumbai is lagging behind. Pune, Kalyan, Thane have overtaken Mumbai. The famous hotspots of Dharavi, Dadar, Sion, Worli are longer uttered in the news. Of course, the counts are still there, but they do not attract any more attention. This is a cycle which will be followed in every new red zone area. The point is how big spike we allow the zone to get and how quickly we nab it. Delhi at one point started competing with Mumbai/Maharashtra. But, it h

COVID-19: One Week long projection post mid july

How would you call the COVID-19 situation in India for the last week. In contrast to what I hear around, I would say, the situation in India is improving. Lets see the reasons why I feel so: - Recovery rate has gone up to 63%. So, there is almost 2/3rd chance of survival for every person getting infected by COVID - The mortality rate has now reduced down to ~2.5%, way down from 3.2% in a 10 days duration.This is happening because of more and more testing. Today's report said, we did record 3.2 lakh testing in a day. This implies that the possibility of death because of COVID-19 is getting low. It may mean,  most of the people around can do fine with a little low panic level. Of course, precautions are necessary, if you don't want to fall in that very low 2.5% mortality set. Coming down to numbers. I am happy to see that India deviated significantly from my mid-July projection of 10.25 lakhs. Good to see the lowered down number. This shows the kind of control we ar

COVID-19 -Mid July Projections

Half of the year is gone. Come July and what is happening at the COVID-19 front now for India. With the number of cases pretty fast, all seems getting more and more worried. But I will start on good note. Lets talk about the doubling rate.  The doubling rate of cases has increase from last time 17 days to 20 days now. Some reports suggested that the doubling rate of 30+ days means things are well in control. Now, a more important factor - mortality rate. We are doing even better here. The mortality rate has reduced from 3.2% to 2.8%. This is good news. Third thing is the recovery rate. India's recovery rate has increased to 60% Coming to Country and state wise projections. India has found a lot new contributors to increase its counts. Of course Maharashtra is in no mood to give away its premium position. Still, I would say, India is in a better situation then what I projected at the end of the month of June . I am revising my projections for the total number of cases

COVID-19 mid July projection

Half of the year is gone. Come July and what is happening at the COVID-19 front now for India. With the number of cases pretty fast, all seems getting more and more worried. But I will start on good note. Lets talk about the doubling rate.  The doubling rate of cases has increase from last time 17 days to 20 days now. Some reports suggested that the doubling rate of 30+ days means things are well in control. Now, a more important factor - mortality rate. We are doing even better here. The mortality rate has reduced from 3.2% to 2.8%. This is good news. Third thing is the recovery rate. India's recovery rate has increased to 60% Coming to Country and state wise projections. India has found a lot new contributors to increase its counts. Of course Maharashtra is in no mood to give away its premium position. Still, I would say, India is in a better situation then what I projected at the end of the month of June. I am revising my projections for the total number of cases f

COVID-19 updates - June end

The past week seem to have changed the scenario little bit. A sudden jump in the reported positive cases is the reason behind it. Despite, I don't see much change in the projections. Last week, I revised the projection from 5.4 lakhs to 5.75 lakhs by the end of the month. The sudden spikes seen in the last few days would take this number to around 5.8 -5.9 lakhs. So, pretty much similar area of projection. There are couple of good things to look forward too. Like, the recent doubling time was 17 days. Now we are in the 16th day since the count of 3.2 lakhs, and we have a pretty long way to reach the count of 6.4 lakhs. Means the doubling time would surely be more than 17 days. At the same time, the mortality rate has slightly reduced from 3.2% to 3.08%. Also, the recovery rate has also touched 60%. Talking about further projections, by 15th July, we can see a huge jump reaching a count of 11.5 lakhs. Talking about states, Maharashtra seems in no mood to loose its first positio

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