The situation looks little grim. Isn't it. Every day, we are hitting a new high. Last two days we crossed 15k mark of positive cases reported in a day. But there is a silver lining also to these updates. As many as 56% people have successfully recovered from COVID-19 and the number of active patients is reduced to 41%. At the same time, the mortality ratio has also not increased. Its kind of constant at 3.2%.
With sudden increase appearing in the number of cases, I had to revise the projections for the month end.
So, for India, the projection has gone up slightly. Compared to earlier 5.4 lakhs, now, it may touch a number somewhere around 5.75 lakhs.
My projection for Maharashtra last week seems overestimated. Although Maharashtra is reporting new highs every day, it seems the total at the end of the month will stick around 1,70,000 to 1,90,000. That is a huge improvement.
I thought Tamilnadu is the next Maharashtra. But, seems it is proving me wrong. Contrary to earlier projection of 1,20,000, the new projection is limiting the number somewhere around 75-80 K. That is another improvement.
Only state, which seem to show worse upcoming situation than earlier projected is Delhi. The projections had to be revised from earlier number of 72,000 to 96,000. This seem to be competing with Maharashtra in per day new cases numbers reported.
Gujrat seem to be on track to good control. The projections seem moving in right direction from earlier 40,000 projected cases to 32-34 K cases by the end of the month.
All in all, except for Delhi, we are in good shape. If we check the actual active number of cases, we have hardly 1,76,000 cases to handle. Among these active cases, with current mortality rate, we amy have almost 5000 cases at risk of facing death situation. Can we save them?
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