The past week seem to have changed the scenario little bit. A sudden jump in the reported positive cases is the reason behind it. Despite, I don't see much change in the projections. Last week, I revised the projection from 5.4 lakhs to 5.75 lakhs by the end of the month. The sudden spikes seen in the last few days would take this number to around 5.8 -5.9 lakhs. So, pretty much similar area of projection.
There are couple of good things to look forward too. Like, the recent doubling time was 17 days. Now we are in the 16th day since the count of 3.2 lakhs, and we have a pretty long way to reach the count of 6.4 lakhs. Means the doubling time would surely be more than 17 days. At the same time, the mortality rate has slightly reduced from 3.2% to 3.08%. Also, the recovery rate has also touched 60%.
Talking about further projections, by 15th July, we can see a huge jump reaching a count of 11.5 lakhs.
Talking about states, Maharashtra seems in no mood to loose its first position. In between for a day, it so happened that Delhi crossed over Maharashtra. With 3200 cases, Maharashtra stood at second position to Delhi with almost 3900 cases. This seems didn't go well with Maharashtra. Since then it changed its zone and directly jumped in a range of 5000+ cases. My projections of 1.7 to 1.9 lakhs seems to turn right. To be precise, it may touch and cross 1.75 lakh cases by the end of this month. Going further, the projections by 15 July could be reaching a whopping 3.75 lakh cases. At one point, Maharashtra was almost on the verge of flattening the plateau. But not any more. Once again, it is hitting 1/3rd of the cases of all the total count of India.
Tamilnadu, though little over estimating, seems to have come in control. The current numbers are crossing my projection and may settle around 90000 cases by the end of this month. But it still is far better than my 2 week back projection of 1.2 lakhs. By 15th July, I see the number growing to 1.75 lakhs though.
Delhi is a new favorite for discussion. It seem to follow the projected trend and may reach up to 92000 cases by the end of the month. But, it seems Delhi got little disheartened ( Good for Delhi) by Maharashtra which got into competitive mode suddenly. The rise in the number of cases seem to get settled between 3.5- 4 thousand cases. As a result, for Delhi too, the cases by the end of 15th July may reach a number of 1.75 lakhs.
All the other states are also reporting a bigger and bigger number of cases every day. But I am not currently going to project their numbers here, though I have projections done for many of them. May be I will put a table at the end of this month for couple of states for every ones reference.
I feel, the big spikes are seen for last few days, but there are pretty good number of good news also hidden within them. Lets be hopeful
There are couple of good things to look forward too. Like, the recent doubling time was 17 days. Now we are in the 16th day since the count of 3.2 lakhs, and we have a pretty long way to reach the count of 6.4 lakhs. Means the doubling time would surely be more than 17 days. At the same time, the mortality rate has slightly reduced from 3.2% to 3.08%. Also, the recovery rate has also touched 60%.
Talking about further projections, by 15th July, we can see a huge jump reaching a count of 11.5 lakhs.
Talking about states, Maharashtra seems in no mood to loose its first position. In between for a day, it so happened that Delhi crossed over Maharashtra. With 3200 cases, Maharashtra stood at second position to Delhi with almost 3900 cases. This seems didn't go well with Maharashtra. Since then it changed its zone and directly jumped in a range of 5000+ cases. My projections of 1.7 to 1.9 lakhs seems to turn right. To be precise, it may touch and cross 1.75 lakh cases by the end of this month. Going further, the projections by 15 July could be reaching a whopping 3.75 lakh cases. At one point, Maharashtra was almost on the verge of flattening the plateau. But not any more. Once again, it is hitting 1/3rd of the cases of all the total count of India.
Tamilnadu, though little over estimating, seems to have come in control. The current numbers are crossing my projection and may settle around 90000 cases by the end of this month. But it still is far better than my 2 week back projection of 1.2 lakhs. By 15th July, I see the number growing to 1.75 lakhs though.
Delhi is a new favorite for discussion. It seem to follow the projected trend and may reach up to 92000 cases by the end of the month. But, it seems Delhi got little disheartened ( Good for Delhi) by Maharashtra which got into competitive mode suddenly. The rise in the number of cases seem to get settled between 3.5- 4 thousand cases. As a result, for Delhi too, the cases by the end of 15th July may reach a number of 1.75 lakhs.
All the other states are also reporting a bigger and bigger number of cases every day. But I am not currently going to project their numbers here, though I have projections done for many of them. May be I will put a table at the end of this month for couple of states for every ones reference.
I feel, the big spikes are seen for last few days, but there are pretty good number of good news also hidden within them. Lets be hopeful
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