So, the Unlock 1.0 is slowly gripping up. Some people are questioning, with the increasing number of cases every day, is it the right way to go ahead or should there be another lock down imposed?
I believe, there is no more need of lock downs. What ever is to be achieved, has been achieved.
Inspite of what the number says, I would say, the spread is quite in control. If you remember, my projection of positive cases in India by 15th June, was 3,50,000. I made little revision last week and projected the number to be around 3.5 -3.8 lakh cases. Comparing the projection to actual numbers today, we are gladly way behind that number. By the end of the day, I don't see the number crossing 3,45,000 mark. This simply means, we are in a way improving the situation. Second aspect to check the rise, is to make a note of doubling time. The doubling time has increases to 17 days, which is a good news.
This improvement is also reflected in the new projections, I am making till the end of June month. So, on 31st May, I projected the number for June end as 5,00,000. Then, I revised it to 6,00,000 by 8th June. Now, I am again revising it and putting it somewhere around 5.4 lakhs, which is a big improvement over the last week.
Now, Maharashtra has been a major contender behind these increasing number of cases. Last week, I projected the number of cases from Mahrashtra by the end of June 15 to increase to 1.1 -1.2 lakh cases. As of today, the number stands at 1.08 lakhs. By the end of the day, the number will rise probably to 1.11 lakhs. This is an improvement. Although, I also projected a case, where the number may have reached its peak at 1.2 lakhs and may start reducing. But looks like, that scenario will need some more time to come into picture. As per present situation, the projections for Maharashtra for the end of the month stands at around 2,35,000 cases. Maharashtra had started signs of recovery, but with the spread in areas in addition to Mumbai and Pune, looks like by June end, Maharashtra will be contributing almost 43% of total cases of India.
There is kind of competition between Tamilnadu and Delhi. I projected around 42,000 cases for both the state by 15th June. While Delhi is touching that mark today, Tamilnadu has gone past that number. I am little surprised, why then all the attention is on Delhi, while Tamilnadu situation is deteriorating day by day. If the current trend follows, Tamilnadu will cross a mark of 1.2 lakhs by the month end. There is a serious need to check the situation of Tamilnadu. In contrast, Delhi is given bigger attention. The situation is bad, but, I guess still far better than Tamilnadu. I do not see Delhi crossing 70,000 mark by the end of this month. That is a way better situation.
Gujrat is the fourth state in the race. But, it is lagging behind in the race, which is a good thing. I predicted two scenarios for the state. I am glad, the second scenario of projected 1,00,000 cases did not arise and Gujrat continued keeping strong grip on the spread of COVID. If the current trend continues, we can expected the number restricted to 40,000 cases.
So, these 4 states together will contribute almost 4,65,000 cases out of projected 5,40,000 cases across India. i.e. this ratio would decrease from 86% in two weeks to 65%. This is something to worry about. Other states would be contributing 35% of cases by the end of the month. If we manage to put control on rise in cases in other states, we would be able to significantly curb the spread of COVID. Let's see how things change in coming two weeks.
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