The first week of Unlocking the Indian Economy has started showing some signs of disturbance. But I guess these disturbances were expected and that's why I don't see any of the government showing any panic signs. On the contrary, they seem to go ahead with their plans to open up the economy further and further.
The last 3 days of the week have actually been exceptional. We have started recording the 3rd largest number of cases per day just after USA and Brazil. In fact, last 2 days, we have consecutively been crossing the mark of 10,000 cases per day.
Unlike earlier, the contribution of Maharashtra towards total cases has reduced. Earlier, the share used to be between 35 -50 % of total cases, but now it has reduced to 25-33 % share. That doesn't mean Maharashtra has significantly improved its situation. It has just managed to maintain its COVID-19 cases to a constant number of 2500 -3000. In a way, it seems to have reach its peak interms of per day cases added. If the situation remains the same, by the end of 15 June, I project the number to stay around 1.1 -1.2 lakh cases. We may start seeing signs of reversal during this time, which means,for Maharashtra atleast, we would have crossed the peak.
Other two states which have started playing bigger role are Delhi and Tamilnadu. Looks like its just a beginning and peak of per day cases is yet to arrive. By the end of June 15 the cases in both the states would rise to ~ 42000 cases. Very soon, the two states would overtake Maharashtra and would start racing for number 1 contributor position.
The fourth state of Gujrat, seem to have kept it under control. It lost its 3rd position contributor rank to Delhi and has been enlarging the gap. We are not sure, if the migrant issue is going to effect the state in coming days or not. All in all, till June 15, it looks under control. But just in case, it looses control, we can expect very big spike crossing 1 lakh mark for the state by the end of this month.
The worrisome part comes after this. Earlier the contribution coming from these 4 states used to be arounf 75-80 % of total Indian cases reported per day. Now, the number has slightly reduced to 65-70 % range. Which means the cases arising from other states have started showing significant increase. We can, may be blame this to migration that happened in last 2-3 weeks time. If it is just the untested migrants getting tested after reaching their destination, then it is fine. But, if the numbers coming is because of the spread caused due to these migrants to their respective destination areas. Then there is a problem.
The effect is visible. My earlier projections for total cases in India by the end of the month were around 5 lakh cases. But, now, the estimate need to be revised to a number above 6 lakhs.
On a positive note, the recovery rate of India is good. Almost closer to 50%. The mortality rate seems pretty low, almost 2.77%. That is the strongest aspect about India. Our number may rise to any new height in coming, as long as our recovery rate is getting better day by day, we should be fine.
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