COVID-19 -Mid July Projections

Half of the year is gone. Come July and what is happening at the COVID-19 front now for India.

With the number of cases pretty fast, all seems getting more and more worried. But I will start on good note.

Lets talk about the doubling rate.  The doubling rate of cases has increase from last time 17 days to 20 days now. Some reports suggested that the doubling rate of 30+ days means things are well in control.

Now, a more important factor - mortality rate. We are doing even better here. The mortality rate has reduced from 3.2% to 2.8%. This is good news.

Third thing is the recovery rate. India's recovery rate has increased to 60%

Coming to Country and state wise projections.

India has found a lot new contributors to increase its counts. Of course Maharashtra is in no mood to give away its premium position. Still, I would say, India is in a better situation then what I projected at the end of the month of June. I am revising my projections for the total number of cases for India down to 10.25 lakhs from the earlier projection of 11.5 lakhs.

 

When it comes to State wise contributions, there is no competition to Maharashtra. It has single handedly contributed more than 2 lakh cases by now. With per day cases rising to whopping 7,000 cases, there is no one to challenge Maharashtra. In between, Delhi did attempted it for a day or two. But it learnt its lesson pretty quickly and has now fallen in line towards recovery. By 15th July, Maharashtra may touch a number around 3.2 lakhs. If it shows recovery sign, it may reduce the number to 3 lakhs. In any case this is a far better situation than my earlier projection of 3.75 lakhs. Means, some measures have been taken and probably they are showing their results.

The nearest competitor is Tamilnadu. It has neither improved nor worsened its situation. The projection for Tamilnadu stays at 1.75 lakhs as projected earlier.

After learning a lesson, when it attempted to surpass Maharashtra's per day count  for a day or two, Delhi has not only controlled but also has started showing signs of recovery. Last few days improvements if considered, Delhi would be found around 1.25 lakh cases compared to earlier projection of 1.75 lakhs. Even in little worse situation, I don't see the number going beyond 1.5 lakhs.

 

If there is one state which has shown a dramatic shift, its Gujrat. Till May 13, it was the leading state after Maharashtra, while Tamilnadu and Delhi were trying to catch up with it. But since then, it started loosing its position and is now settled at 4th position. The count is also pretty low compared to other 3 states. I don't see the number going beyond 45,000 by 15th July. It may too happen that it will loose it 4th position also by then.

 

So, which state may takes its position? The surprising name is Karnataka. While we were listening to the Bangalore model of controlling COVID-19, suddenly we are seeing bigger and bigger spikes for the states. Now, am seeing two scenarios here. If the current trend of lets say per day almost 2000 cases keep continuing, then the count may go up to 47,000 cases. But, if the gradient of increasing cases day seems increasing, then an increase upto 65,000 is also on the cards. So, we are looking at a new beast emerging on the platform. Better control it in time.

 

One of the other states gaining interest in Uttar Pradesh. Although the number seems increasing, the projections seem to reach up to 38000 cases, which is still a number under control.

 

With the current numbers, we have crossed Russia and are at the 3rd position, behind USA and Brazil. Looks like we will be here for some time. No competition to topple us down as yet. Will update the status as always by next Monday. But, am sure, the situation will improve further in coming time. Till then,

STAY HOME, STAY SAFE.



 

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