Everyone is fed up of COVID-19 and really looking for a day when we will start living without that fear. Every one is handling it in different ways, but every one in their mind is trying to make a guess of how the virus effect is shaping up and can we see a light at the end of the tunnel.
I also have been following it closely. Out of some conversation, I started following the growth especially in two states of India, Maharashtra and Kerala, which were competing at some point about who reports the maximum patients. We know how the two drastically different routes the two states have taken by now. So, I collected the related data about couple of states as well as for India from the site https://www.covid19india.org/ since April 06 and over the time. Based on the data, I have to tried to extrapolated it to check where will India, Maharashtra and Kerala stand at the end of the second lock down in India ends on 3rd May.
India is slightly deviating from linear correlation and slowly moving towards square correlation. I believe, the main reason could be the Maharashtra trend which pretty much every day contributes to 1/3rd to 1/2 of the total cases of India. Depending on how it varies in coming few days, by 4th May, India tally may stand between 36000 if it varies linear to 44000 it goes all hell to square dependency.
The worst effected state of India, Maharashtra has surely moved away from linear dependency and surely following a square trend. i.e. if on day 1, the number was 3, on day 2, the number will be higher than 6 ( a number otherwise possible for linear trend). With linear trend, the number on 3rd May will be somewhere near 10,300. But if it starts following polynomial trend as shown, it will be near 14,000. Surely a number we do not want.
So, Kerala, which was competing at one point with Maharashtra has performed really well. It was almost flattening the curve. But noe, it has started again showing a linear trend. As of now, it shows no sign of going polynomial. I estimate the number to be around 525-535 on 4th May.
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